第 7 卷 第 6 期 2011 年 11 月 气候系统变化
385 西北干旱区空中水资源的时空变化特征及其原因分析 刘芸芸，张雪芹 393 长江流域潜在蒸发量和实际蒸发量的关系
王艳君，刘 波，翟建青，苏布达，罗 勇，张增信 气候变化影响
400 风电场对气候变化影响研究进展 赵宗慈，罗 勇，江 滢 407 气候变化对华北 4 个城市建筑节能设计气象参数的影响 李明财，郭 军，田 吉吉，向 操，熊明明
412 气候变化影响下林芝地区泥石流发育规律研究 陈宁生，周海波，胡桂胜 418 1981—2009 年辽宁省河流封冻期特征及对气候变暖的响应 李 辑 ，胡春丽，李 菲，张黎黎 温室气体排放
423 全球 1970—2007 年碳排放与城市化关联机理分析 薛 冰，李春荣，刘 竹，耿 涌，郗凤明 对策论坛
428 《京都议定书》第二承诺期森林管理基准线分析 张小全 435 基础四国加强气候变化科技合作的必要性和可能性 苏明山，李 昕，鲁传一，赵秀生，王文涛 研究计划
441 美国气候变化科学计划综述 王守荣
449 美国实施全球变化研究计划的协作机制及其启示 申丹娜 简 讯
455 写在 IPCC 关于极端气候事件评估特别报告发表之际 赵宗慈，罗 勇，黄建斌
科学知识
458 D/O 循环与 H 事件 王绍武Contents Vol. 7 No. 6 November 2011 Changes in Climate System
392 Variations of Atmospheric Water Resources over the Arid Region of Northwest China and Its Causes Liu Yunyun, Zhang Xueqin
399 Relationship Between Potential and Actual Evaporation in Yangtze River Basin Wang Yanjun, Liu Bo, Zhai Jianqing, Su Buda, Luo Yong, Zhang Zengxin Impacts of Climate Change
406 Advances in Assessment on Impacts of Wind Farms upon Climate Change Zhao Zongci, Luo Yong, Jiang Ying
411 Effect of Climate Change on Meteorological Parameters for Building Energy-Saving Design in Four Cities in North China Li Mingcai, Guo Jun, Tian Zhe, Xiang Cao, Xiong Mingming
417 Development Rules of Debris Flow Under the Influence of Climate Change in Nyingchi
Chen Ningsheng, Zhou Haibo, Hu Guisheng
422 Characters of River’S Freeze/Thaw Date and Their Responses to Regional Warming
in Liaoning Province During 1981-2009 Li Ji, Hu Chunli, Li Fei, Zhang Lili Greenhouse Gas Emissions
427 Analysis on CO2 Emission and Urbanization at Global Level During 1970-2007 Xue Bing, Li Chunrong, Liu Zhu, Geng Yong, Xi Fengming Forum
434 Analysis on the Reference Level of Forest Management Submitted by Annex I Parties for the Second Commitment Period of the Kyoto Protocol Zhang Xiaoquan
440 Necessity and Possibility for BASIC Science and Technology Cooperation to Address Global Climate Change Su Mingshan, Li Xin, Lu Chuanyi, Zhao Xiusheng, Wang Wentao Research Programme
448 Review of U.S. Climate Change Science Program Wang Shourong
454 Coordination and Management of U.S. Global Change Research Program and Its Implications Shen Danna Notes
455 Written in the IPCC Special Report Published Relating to Extreme Climate Event Assessments Zhao Zongci, Luo Yong, Huang Jianbin Knowledge
458 D/O Cycles and H Events Wang Shaowu 文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 06-0385-08 西北干旱区空中水资源的时空变化特征及其原因分析 刘芸芸 1 ，张雪芹 2
（1 中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081；2 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，北京
100101）
摘 要：利用 1979—2008 年 NCEP/NCAR 月平均再分析资料，从大气可降水量、水汽输送 及收支等方面分析西北干旱区空中水资源的时空变化特征，并揭示其主要原因。研究表明， 1979—2008 年西北干旱区整层年水汽含量略呈增加趋势，而夏季水汽总收入呈现显著增加 趋势。区域空中水资源的变化与中纬度西风水汽输送密切相关。尽管区域西风指数的年代际 减弱反映了西北干旱区东、西边界西风水汽输送的减弱趋势；但受区域特殊地形的影响，区 域东边界水汽收支的减弱趋势远强于西边界，使得大量的水汽滞留于西北干旱区，从而导致 该区域夏季水汽总收入呈现增加趋势。
关键词：西北干旱区；水汽输送；大气可降水量；水汽收支 中图分类号：P426.6 文献标识码：A 收稿日期：2011-06-10； 修回日期：2011-09-22
资 助 项 目 ： 国 家 重 点 基 础 研 究 发 展 计 划 （2009CB421300）； 国 家 科 技 支 撑 计 划
（2009BAC51B05）；国家自然科学基金项目（41005037） 第一作者：刘芸芸（1981—），女，工程师，从事短期气候预测及研究工作。E-mail: liuyuny@cma.gov.cn
Variations of Atmospheric Water Resources over the Arid Region of Northwest China and Its Causes Liu Yunyun 1
, Zhang Xueqin 2
(1 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 2 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)
Abstract: Based on the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data from 1979 to 2008, this paper has analyzed the variations of the atmospheric water resource over the arid region of Northwest China (ARNC) from the aspects of water vapor transport, precipitable water vapor and water vapor budget, and then has revealed the main causes of the variability. The results show that the annual precipitable water vapor over ARNC has shown
increasing trend during the recent 30 years, while the summer water vapor net income has displayed an even more remarkable increasing trend. The westerly water vapor transport in the middle latitude had very important contribution to the variability of the atmospheric water resource over ARNC. The interdecadal descending characters of the regional westerly wind index implies the weakening of the water vapor transport both at the eastern and western boundary of ARNC, the descending trend of the water vapor budget at the eastern boundary, however, was much more significant than that at the western boundary due to the effects of the huge geomorphological structure of ARNC, thereby
resulting in a lot of water vapor stranded in the arid region, and the total summer water vapor budget increased.
Key words: arid region of Northwest China (ARNC); water vapor transport; precipitable water content; water vapor budget
参考文献
[1]符淙斌, 王强. 南亚夏季风气候的突变现象及其与全球迅速增暖的同步性[J]. 中国科学: B
辑, 1991, 35: 666-672
[2]丁一汇, 王守荣. 中国西北地区气候与生态环境概论 [M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2001: 1-2
[3]IPCC. Climate change 2007: the physical scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the forth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007
[4]张雪芹, 孙杨, 毛炜峄, 等. 中国干旱区气温变化对全球变暖的区域响应 [J]. 干旱区研究,
2010, 27 (4): 592-599
[5]王绍武, 董光荣. 中国西部环境演变评估: 第1卷: 中国西部环境特征及其演变 [M]. 北
京: 科学出版社, 2002: 49-61
[6]何金海, 刘芸芸, 常越. 西北地区夏季降水异常及其水汽输送和环流特征分析 [J]. 干旱气
象, 2005: 23 (1): 10-16
[7]施雅风, 沈永平, 胡汝骥. 西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨 [J].
冰川冻土, 2002, 24: 1-6
[8]施雅风, 沈永平, 李栋梁, 等. 中国西北部气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨
[J].
第四纪研究, 2003, 24 (3): 152-1
[9]崔玉琴. 西北内陆上空水汽输送及其源地 [J]. 水利学报, 1994, 9: 79-87
[10]蔡英, 钱正安, 宋敏红. 华北和西北区干湿年间水汽场及东亚夏季风的对比分析 [J]. 高
原气象, 2003, 22: 14-24
[11]王宝鉴, 黄玉霞, 何金海, 等.东亚夏季风期间水汽输送与西北干旱的关系 [J]. 高原气
象, 2004, 23: 912-918
[12]赵兵科, 蔡承侠, 杨莲梅, 等. 夏季变湿的大气环流异常特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2007, 28 (3): 434-442
[13]Yang S, Lau K M, Kim K M. Variations of the East Asian jet stream and
Asian-Pacific-American winter climate anomalies [J]. J Climate, 2002, 15: 306-325
[14]Inoue T, Matsumoto J. A comparison of summer sea level pressure over east Eurasia between NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and ERA-40 for the period of 1960-99 [J]. J Meteor Soc Japan, 2004, 82: 951-958
[15]Wu R, Kinter J L, Kirtman B P. Discrepancy of interdecadal changes in the Asian region among the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, objective analyses, and observations [J]. J Climate, 2005, 18: 3048-3067
[16]Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40 year reanalysis project [J]. Bull Amer Soc, 1996, 77: 437-471
[17]王霄, 巩远发, 岑思弦. 夏半年青藏高原“湿池”的水汽分布及水汽输送特征 [J]. 地理学
报, 2009, (5): 601-608
[18]苗秋菊, 徐祥德, 张胜军. 长江流域水汽收支与高原水汽输送分量“转换”特征 [J]. 气象
学报, 2005, 63 (1): 93-99
[19]施雅风. 气候变化对西北华北水资源的影响 [M]. 济南: 山东科学技术出版社, 1995:
17-25 [20]汤奇成. 中国干旱区水文及水资源利用 [M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1992: 132-147 [21]刘芸芸, 张雪芹, 孙杨. 全球变暖背景下西北干旱区雨季的降水时空变化特征及未来趋
势[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2011, 7 (2): 97-103
[22]刘芸芸, 何金海, 梁建茵, 等. 亚澳季风区水汽输送季节转换特征 [J]. 热带气象学报,
2006, 22 (2): 138-146
[23]戴新刚, 李维京, 马柱国. 近几十年水汽源地变化特征 [J]. 自然科学进展, 2006, 16
(12): 1651-1656
[24]李万莉, 王可丽, 傅慎明, 等. 区域西风指数对西北地区水汽输送及收支的指示性 [J].
冰川冻土, 2008, 30 (1): 28-34
[25]Frauenfeld O W, Davis R E. Northern Hemisphere circumpolar vortex trends and
climate change implications [J]. J Geophys Res, 2003, 108 (D14): 4423-4436
[26]张恒德, 高守亭, 张友姝. 北极涡年代际变化及其与我国春季降水的关系 [J]. 气候与环
境研究, 2006, 11 (5) : 593-604
[27]周连童. 引起华北地区夏季出现持续干旱的环流异常型 [J]. 气候与环境研究, 2009, 14:
120-130
文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 06-0393-07 长江流域潜在蒸发量和实际蒸发量的关系 王艳君 1 ，刘 波 2 ，翟建青 3 ，苏布达 3 ，罗 勇 3 ，张增信 4
（1 南京信息工程大学，南京 210044；2 河海大学，南京 210024；3 中国气象局国家气
候中心，北京 100081；4 南京林业大学，南京 210042）
摘要：针对“蒸发悖论”科学问题，从长江流域实际蒸发量变化的原因着手，探讨实际蒸发 量与潜在蒸发量之间的关系。研究结果表明：一般情况下当干燥度指数 R<0.8 时，实际蒸 发量与潜在蒸发量为明显的正相反关系，当 0.8 资助项目：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目（973 计划）（2010CB428401）；国家自然科学 基金项目（40701028） 第一作者：王艳君（1978—），女，副教授，主要从事气候变化对水文水资源影响研究。E-mail: yjwang78@163.com Relationship Between Potential and Actual Evaporation in Yangtze River Basin Wang Yanjun 1 , Liu Bo 2 , Zhai Jianqing 3 , Su Buda 3 , Luo Yong 3 , Zhang Zengxin 4 (1 Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 2 Hohai University, Nanijng 210024, China; 3 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 4 Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210042, China) Abstract: For the scientific issue of “evaporation paradox” the relationship between actual and potential evaporation in the Yangtze River basin was studied in this paper. The results show that roughly when the dryness index R<0.8, the actual evaporation is positively correlated with potential evaporation; when 0.8 Key words: evaporation paradox; complementary relationship; potential evaporation; actual evaporation; Yangtze River basin 参考文献 [1]IPCC. Climate change 2001: the science basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001: 127-129 [2]Robock A, Konstantin V Y, Srinivasan G, et al. The global soil moisture data bank [J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2000, 81: 1281-1299 [3]Golubev V S, Lawrimore J H, Groisman P Y, et al. Evaporation changes over the contiguous United States and the former USSR: a reassessment [J]. Geophy Res Lett, 2001, 28 (13): 2665-2668 [4]Gao G, Chen D L, Ren G Y, et al. Spatial and temporal variations and controlling factors of potential evapotranspiration in China: 1956-2000 [J]. J Geogr Sci, 2006, 16 (1): 3-12 [5]Liu C M, Zeng Y. Changes of pan evaporation in the recent 40 years in the Yellow River basin [J]. Water International, 2004, 29 (4): 510-516 [6]任国玉, 郭军. 中国水面蒸发的变化 [J]. 自然资源学报, 2006, 21(1): 31-44 [7]Wang Y, Jiang T, Bothe O, et al. Changes of pan evaporation and reference evapotranspiration in the Yangtze River basin [J]. Theor Appl Climatol, 2007, 90: 13-23 [8]Chattopadhyay N, Hulme M. Evaporation and potential evapotranspiration in India under conditions of recent and future climate change [J]. Agric Forest Meteor, 1997, 87: 55-73 [9]Roderick M L, Farquhar G D. Changes in Australian pan evaporation from 1970 to 2002 [J]. Int J Climatol, 2004, 24 (9): 1077-1090 [10]Cong Z T, Yang D W, Ni G H. Does evaporation paradox exist in China? [J] Hydrol Earth Syst Sci, 2009, 13: 357-366 [11]van Heerwaarden C C, de Arellano J V-G, Teuling A J. Land-atmosphere coupling explains the link between pan evaporation and actual evapotranspiration trends in a changing climate [J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2010, 37, L21401, doi: 10.1029/2010GL045374 [12]Peterson T C, Golubev V S, Groisman P Y. Evaporation losing its strength [J]. Nature, 1995, 337: 687-688 [13]Roderick M L, Farquhar G D. The cause of decreased pan evaporation over the past 50 years [J]. Science, 2002, 298: 1410-1411 [14]Roderick M L, Hobbins M T, Farquhar G D. Pan evaporation trends and the terrestrial water balance, energy balance and interpretation [J]. Geogr Compass, 2009, 312: 761-780 [15]Hobbins M T, Ramirez J A, Brown T C. Trends in pan evaporation and actual evapotranspiration across the conterminous US: paradoxical or complementary? [J] Geophy Res Lett, 2004, 31 (13), L13503, doi: 10.1029=2004GL019846 [16]Brutsaert W, Parlange M B. Hydrologic cycle explains the evaporation paradox [J]. Nature, 1998, 396: 30 [17]Ohmura A, Wild M. Is the hydrological cycle accelerating? [J]. Science, 2002, 298: 1345-1346 [18]姜彤, 苏布达, 王艳君, 等. 四十年来长江流域气温、降水与径流变化趋势 [J]. 气候变化 研究进展, 2005, 1 (2) : 65-68 [19]王艳君, 姜彤, 刘波. 长江流域实际蒸发量的变化趋势[J]. 地理学报, 2010, 65 (9): 1079-1088 [20]Buishand T A. Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records [J]. Journal of Hydrology, 1982, 58: 11-27 [21]Allen R G, Pereira L S, Raes D, et al. Crop evapotranspiration guidelines for computing crop water requirements: FAO irrigation and drainage paper 56 [R]. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1998 [22]Libiseller C. A program for the computation of multivariate and partial Mann-Kendall test [R]. Sweden: University of Linko¨ping, 2002 [23]Gao G, Chen D L, Xu C Y, et al. Trend of estimated actual evapotranspiration over China during 1960-2002 [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2007, 112: 1-8 [24]Cohen S, Ianetz A, Stanhill G. Evaporative climate changes at Bet-Dagan, Israel, 19-1998 [J]. Agric Forest Meteor, 2002, 111: 83-91 [25]伍光和, 田连恕, 胡双熙, 等. 自然地理学 [M]. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2000, 76 [26]Budyko M I. The heat balance of the Earth 誷 surface [M]. Weather Bureau, US Department of Commerce, 1958: 259 [27]Cong Z T, Zhao J J, Yang D W, et al. Understanding the hydrological trends of river basins in China [J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2010, 388: 350-356 [28]Teuling A J, Hirschi M, Ohmura A, et al. A regional perspective on trends in continental evaporation [J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2009, 36, L02404, doi:10.1029/2008GL036584 [29]Yang D W, Sun F B, Liu Z Y, et al. Analyzing spatial and temporal variability of annual water-energy balance in non-humid regions of China using the Budyko hypothesis [J]. Water Resour Res, 2007, 43, W04426, doi:10.1029/2006WR005224 [30]秦年秀, 姜彤, 许崇育. 长江流域径流趋势变化与突变分析 [J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14 (5) : 5-594 文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 06-0400-07 风电场对气候变化影响研究进展 赵宗慈 1,2 ，罗 勇 1,2 ，江 滢 3 （1 清华大学地球系统科学研究中心，北京 100084；2 中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081；3 中国气象局公共气象服务中心，北京 100081） 摘 要：综述了国际评估风电场对局地和全球气候变化的短期和较长期的可能影响，并且将 其影响与人类排放的影响作简单的对比。大量的观测和数值模拟研究表明，风电场的运行明 显减小下游风速，同时随局地近地层稳定度的不同也造成下游温度明显上升或下降。一些数 值模拟研究表明，如果全球建立大量大型风电场，例如假定全球使用风能占总能源 10%以 上，即全球陆地的 30%～40%和全球海洋浅水区均建有风电场，这些风电场的运行将可能造 成全球变暖和风速减小。目前风电场对全球气候的影响尚具有很大的不确定性。 关键词：风电场；气候变化；影响；气温；风速 中图分类号：P425.6+3 文献标识码：A 收稿日期：2011-05-16； 修回日期：2011-06-13 资助项目：全球变化重大科学研究计划（2010CB950500）；公益性行业科研专项经费项目 （GYHY200806009）第一作者：赵宗慈（1940—），女，研究员/教授，主要从事气候和气候变化研究。E-mail: zhaozc@cma.gov.cn Advances in Assessment on Impacts of Wind Farms upon Climate Change Zhao Zongci 1,2 , Luo Yong 1,2 , Jiang Ying 3 (1 Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3 Center for Public Meteorological Service, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China) Abstract: This paper summarizes and assesses the possible impacts of wind farms on both short- and long-term climate changes both in global and regional areas. Based on the most observed studies and numerical simulations, it is found that the wind speed in the downwind regions of wind farms reduced obviously due to the wind farms?operations. The temperature in the downwind regions became higher or lower than the upwind regions. It depended on the atmospheric stability in the near surface. Based on some numerical simulations, if many large wind farms are designed and set up in the world, for example, the global wind energy accounts for 10% of the total energy, it means that 30%-40% of the global lands and the shallow water of the global oceans are the wind farms, it might cause global warming, and also cause the reduction of wind speed and other climatic effects. Up to now, there are large gaps and uncertainties in the assessment of impacts of wind farms on the global climate change. Key words: wind farm; climate change; impact; temperature; wind speed 参考文献 [1]江滢, 罗勇, 赵宗慈, 等. 中国及世界风资源变化研究进展 [J]. 科技导报, 2009, 27 (13): 96-104 [2]赵宗慈, 罗勇, 江滢. 全球大风在减少吗? [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2011, 7 (2): 149-151 [3]Roy S B, Traiteur J J. Impacts of wind farms on surface air temperature [J]. PNAS, 2010, 107 (42): 179-17904, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1000493107 [4]Wang C, Prinn R G. Potential climatic impacts and reliability of very large-scale wind farms [J]. Atmos Chem Phys, 2010, 10: 2053-2061, doi:10.5194/acp-10-2053-2010 [5]Keith D W, DeCarolls J F, Denkenberger D C, et al. The influence of large-scale wind power on global climate [J]. PNAS, 2004, 16 (46): 16115-16120 [6]Maria M R V S, Jacobson M Z. Investigating the effect of large wind farms on energy in the atmosphere [J]. Energies, 2009, 2: 816-838, doi:10.3390/en20400816 [7]Baidya Roy S, Pacala S W, Walko R L. Can large wind farms affect local meteorology? [J]. J Geophys Res, 2004, 109, doi: D19101.1029/2004JD004763 [8]Adams A S, Keith D W. Wind energy and climate: modeling the atmospheric impacts of wind energy tourbines [J]. EOS Trans AGU, 2007, 88 (Fall Meeting Suppl) [9]Vautard R, Cattiaux J, Yiou P, et al. Northern Hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to an increase in surface roughness [J]. Nature Geoscience, 2010 (3): 756-761, doi: 10.1038/ngeo979 [10]Jacobson M J, Kaufman K J. Wind reduction by aerosol particles [J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33, L24814, doi:10.1029/2006GL027838 [11]Frandsen S T, Jorgensen H E, Barthelmie R, et al. The making of a second-generation wind farm efficiency model complex [J]. Wind Energy, 2009, 12: 445-458, doi: 10.1002/we.351 [12]Kirk-Davidoff D B, Keith D W. On the climate impact of surface roughness anomalies [J]. J Atmos Sci, 2008, 65: 2215-2234, doi:10.1175/2007JAS2509.1 [13]Maria M R V S, Jacobson M Z. Investigating the effect of large wind farms on energy in the atmosphere [J]. Energies, 2009, 2: 816-838, doi:10.3390/en20400816 [14]McVicar T R, Roberick M L. Winds of change [J]. Nature Geoscience, 2010, 3: 747-748, doi:10.1038/ngeo1002 [15]IPCC. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Cambridge, UK and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2007: 996 文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 06-0407-05 气候变化对华北 4 个城市建筑节能设计气象参数的影响 李明财 1 ，郭 军 1 ，田 吉吉 2 ，向 操 2 ，熊明明 1 （1 天津市气候中心，天津 300074；2 天津大学环境科学与工程学院，天津 300072） 摘 要：分析了 1951 年以来华北地区北京、天津、石家庄和太原 4 个城市建筑节能设计气 象参数的变化特征，以期为建筑节能设计提供参考。结果表明：自 1951 年以来的近 60 年， 4 个城市采暖及冬季空气调节室外计算温度都明显升高，夏季空气调节室外计算干球温度呈 升高趋势，夏季空气调节室外计算日平均及逐时温度总体上升高，但升高幅度较冬季采暖和 冬季空气调节室外计算温度升高幅度均偏小；夏季通风室外计算温度呈弱的升高趋势，而室 外计算相对湿度在北京、天津及太原降低，石家庄基本不变。气候变化对建筑节能设计气象 参数存在明显的影响，对冬季采暖和空调的影响明显大于夏季空调，这对建筑节能设计是有 利的。由于夏季通风室外计算温度升高不明显，对通风节能影响不大，而北京、天津相对湿 度的降低有利于通风节能。 关键词：建筑节能；气象参数；气候变化；华北 中图分类号：TU111.4+8 文献标识码：A 收稿日期：2011-07-15； 修回日期：2011-08-16 资助项目：中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF2011-5）；华北区域气候变化评估报告编制项目 （CCSF2010-1） 第一作者：李明财（1976—），男，高级工程师，主要从事气候变化和气候应用研究。E-mail: li_mingcai@163.com Effect of Climate Change on Meteorological Parameters for Building Energy-Saving Design in Four Cities in North China Li Mingcai 1 , Guo Jun 1 , Tian Zhe 2 , Xiang Cao 2 , Xiong Mingming 1 (1 Tianjin Climate Center, Tianjin 300074, China; 2 School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China) Abstract: Building energy efficiency is an important measure to deal with climate change issue, and meteorological parameters are the basis for building energy-saving design. In this study, meteorological parameters for building energy-saving design in four cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and Taiyuan) in North China during 1951-2010 were analyzed to provide reference for building energy efficiency. The results showed that outdoor design temperature for heating or air-conditioning in winter apparently increased in all four cities in recent sixty years. Outdoor design dry bulb temperature for summer air-conditioning showed an increasing trend in these four cities and air-conditioning outdoor daily average and hourly temperature in summer also gradually increased. However, the increasing rate was lower in summer than in winter. Outdoor design temperature for summer ventilation showed a weak increase trend in four cities, whereas outdoor design relative humidity showed a decrease in Beijing, Tianjin and no obvious trend in Shijiazhuang and Taiyuan. The results in this study suggest that climate change has evident effect on meteorological parameters for building energy-saving design, and this effect is more intense in winter than in summer, which may be beneficial for building energy-saving design. The weak increase in outdoor design temperature for summer ventilation may be of no evident effect on building ventilation energy, whereas the decrease of relative humidity is useful for energy saving in Tianjin and Beijing. Key words: building energy efficiency; meteorological parameters; climate change; North China 参考文献 [1]文远高, 连之伟. 气候变暖对建筑能耗的影响 [J]. 建筑热能通风空调, 2003, 3: 37-39 [2]陈峪, 黄朝迎. 气候变化对能源需求的影响 [J]. 地理学报, 2000, 55 (增刊): 11-19 [3]郑文晖. 建筑节能气候设计方法研究 [D]. 杭州: 浙江大学, 2003 [4]侯政. 用度日法分析气候变化对建筑采暖能耗的影响 [D]. 西安: 西安建筑科技大学, 2007 [5]毛建西, 陈玉兴, 王波. 建筑节能应与地区气候结合[J]. 四川建筑科学研究, 2005, 31 (1): 121-123 [6]杨柳. 建筑气候分析与设计策略研究[D]. 西安: 西安建筑科技大学, 2003 [7]赵春政. 浅谈在三步节能标准下的 CS 屋面板[J]. 科技创新导报, 2008, 17: 130 [8]吕建, 李星魁, 张君美. 三步节能居住建筑的设计要点 [J]. 煤气与势力, 2007, 27 (3): 71-73 [9]中国有色工程设计研究总院. GB 50019—2003 采暖通风与空气调节设计规范 [S]. 北京: 中国计划出版社, 2004 [10]轩春怡, 高燕虎, 李慧君. 北京市冬季采暖气候条件分析 [J]. 气象科技, 2003, 31 (6): 373-375 [11]杨霞, 赵逸舟, 赵克明, 等. 冬季变暖对乌鲁木齐市采暖气象条件的影响及气象节能潜力 分析 [J]. 干旱区研究, 2010, 27 (1): 148-152 [12]赵康, 刘晓华, 张涛, 等. 关于夏季空气调节室外空气计算参数的讨论 [J]. 暖通空调, 2011, 41 (1): 9-13 [13]付祥钊, 陈敏. 关于民用建筑通风室内外计算参数的思考[J]. 暖通空调, 2011, 41 (5): 26-31 文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 06-0412-06 气候变化影响下林芝地区泥石流发育规律研究 陈宁生 1 ，周海波 1,2 ，胡桂胜 1,2 （1 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所/中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实 验室，成都 610041；2 中国科学院研究生院，北京 100049） 摘 要：从气候变化出发，介绍藏东南林芝地区泥石流类型、分布及活动特征，确定泥石流 形成条件和临界指标，揭示林芝地区泥石流发育规律。温度和降水波动性变化以及不同水热 组合影响林芝地区泥石流发育。冰川泥石流在温度升高或降雨增大情况下都有可能被激发。 日降雨量＜5 mm 时，主要为温度激发的冰雪消融型泥石流；日降雨量 5～10 mm 时，主要 为冰川降雨型泥石流；日降雨量＞10 mm 时，为降雨型泥石流。冰川泥石流在升温条件下 发生次数占 80%以上，降温条件下约占 20%；降雨型泥石流在升温条件下发生次数占 60%， 降温条件下占 40%。从激发泥石流的规模、次数和灾害大小看，高温多雨年代和低温多雨 年代都有利于泥石流发生。 关键词：泥石流；气候变化；林芝地区 中图分类号：P426.616 文献标识码：A 收稿日期：2011-04-06； 修回日期：2011-06-14 资助项目：国家科技支撑计划（2008BAB42B06） 第一作者：陈宁生（1965—），男，研究员，主要从事山地灾害形成机理及防治技术研究。 E-mail: chennsh@imde.ac.cn Development Rules of Debris Flow Under the Influence of Climate Change in Nyingchi Chen Ningsheng 1 , Zhou Haibo 1, 2 , Hu Guisheng 1, 2 (1 Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, CAS, Chengdu 610041, China; 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China) Abstract: Based on the typical debris flows in Nyingchi, this paper presents the basic type, distribution and movement of debris flows, analyzes the initiation condition and critical threshold, and discloses the incubation law of debris flows, and also the impact of temperature and rainfall changes on debris flow initiation. Glaciers debris flow may be inspired during temperature or rainfall increasing. If daily precipitation < 5 mm, melting ice and snow debris is stimulated mainly by temperature; when daily precipitation is 5-10 mm, mainly the glaciers-rainfall debris flow occurs; when daily precipitation >10 mm, rainfall debris flow is in dominate. Glacier debris flows under temperature increasing and decreasing account for 80% and 20%, respectively, while the rainfall debris flows account for 60% and 40%, repectively. Much rainfall are benefit for the initiation of debris flows. Key words: debris flow; climate change; Nyingchi region 参考文献 [1]钟祥浩,王小丹,刘淑珍,等. 高原生态安全 [M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2008: 80 [2]童立强,祈生文,刘春玲. 喜马拉雅山东南地区地质灾害发育规律初步研究 [J]. 工程地质学 报, 2007, 15 (6): 721-729 [3]吕儒仁,唐邦兴,朱平一,等. 泥石流与环境 [M]. 成都: 成都科技大学出版社, 1999: 1-245 [4]胡桂胜,陈宁生,邓明枫,等. 林芝地区泥石流类型及形成条件分析 [J].水土保持学报, 2011, 31 (2): 194-197 [5]蒋忠信. 藏东南泥石流沟纵剖面演化的最小功模式 [J]. 地理科学, 2003, 23 (1): 25-31 [6]吴积善, 程尊兰, 耿学勇. 东南部泥石流堵塞坝的形成机理 [J]. 山地学报, 2005, 23 (4): 399-405 [7]Cheng Zunlan, Geng Xueyong, Dang Chao, et al. Modeling experiment of break of debris-flow dam [J]. Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences, 2007, 12 (4): 588-594 [8]李吉均. 冰川 [M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1988: 8-9 [9]吕儒仁, 李德基. 波密冬茹弄巴的冰雪融水泥石流 [J]. 冰川冻土, 19, 11 (2): 148-160 [10]刘伟. 典型冰湖溃决型泥石流的初步研究 [J]. 水文地质工程地质, 2006 (3): 88-92 [11]辛晓冬, 姚檀栋, 叶庆华, 等. 1980-2005 年藏东南然乌湖流域冰川湖泊变化研究 [J]. 冰 川冻土, 2009, 31 (1): 19-26 [12]吴祥定, 林振耀. 近代气候变化及其趋势的探讨[J]. 科学通报, 1978, 23 (12): 746 [13]丁一汇. 中国西部环境演变评估第三卷: 中国西部环境变化的预测 [M]. 北京: 科学出版 社, 2002: 39 [14]秦大河. 中国西部环境演变评估综合报告[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2002: 61-65 [15]程尊兰, 朱平一. 藏东南冰湖溃决泥石流灾害及其发展趋势 [J]. 冰川冻土, 2008, 30 (6): 954-958 文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 06-0418-05 1981—2009 年辽宁省河流封冻期特征及对气候变暖的响应 李 辑 1 ，胡春丽 1 ，李 菲 1 ，张黎黎 2 （1 沈阳区域气候中心，沈阳 110016；2 辽宁省防雷中心，沈阳 110016） 摘 要：利用辽宁省 1981—2009 年主要河流冻结和解冻日期观测资料，分析河流冻结日期、 解冻日期、封冻期的变化特征及其对气候变暖的响应。结果表明，辽宁省各流域河流平均冻 结日期最早出现在 11 月 3 日，最晚在 11 月 15 日；河流平均解冻日期最早出现在 3 月 15 日，最晚在 3 月 30 日；平均封冻期为 120～146 d。1981—2009 年河流冻结和解冻日期分 别呈显著的推迟和提前趋势，封冻期呈显著减少趋势；冻结日期的早晚受 11 月最低气温的 影响较大，同年 3 月地面温度的升高对解冻日期的提前影响最大，封冻期的长短对 11 月至 次年 3 月平均气温的变化最为敏感。 关键词：河冰；封冻期；气候变暖；响应 中图分类号：P461+6 文献标识码：A 收稿日期：2011-04-08； 修回日期：2011-07-14 资助项目：中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目（CMAGJ2011M14） 第一作者：李辑（1963—），男，研究员，从事短期气候预测及气候变化的相关研究。通信 作者：胡春丽，E-mail: huchunli0829@163.com Characters of River’s Freeze/Thaw Date and Their Responses to Regional Warming in Liaoning Province During 1981-2009 Li Ji 1 , Hu Chunli 1 , Li Fei 1 , Zhang Lili 2 (1 Shenyang Regional Climate Center, Shenyang 110016, China; 2 Liaoning Lightning Center, Shenyang 110016, China) Abstract: Characters of the freeze/thaw date of river ice in the Liaohe, Yalu, and Linghe River basins and their responses to regional warming are investigated in the period 1981-2009. The results show that the freeze dates ranged from 3 to 15 November, the thaw dates appeared within15-30 March, and the average frozen durations of the three basins ranged from 120 to 146 days. In the past 29 years, the freeze (thaw) date has shown a postponing (bring-forward) trend, thereby the frozen duration has shortened significantly. The river’s freeze date was mainly influenced by November’s minimum surface air temperature, while the river’s thaw date was mostly sensitive to the increasing of ground surface temperature in March, and the frozen duration was most sensitive to the average surface air temperature of November to next March. Key words: river ice; frozen duration; regional warming; response 参考文献 [1]IPCC. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007: 5 [2]Groisman P Y, Karl T R, Knight R W, et al. Changes of snow cover, temperature, and the radiative heat balance over the Northern Hemisphere [J]. Journal of Climate, 1994, 7: 1 633-1656 [3]车涛, 李新, 晋锐. 利用被动微波遥感低频亮温数据监测青海湖封冻与解冻期 [J]. 科学通 报, 2009, 54 (6): 787-791 [4]王文才, 李久昌. 中国水利百科全书 [M]. 北京: 水利电力出版社, 1990: 111 [5]施能. 北半球冬季大气环流遥相关的长期变化及其与我国气候变化的关系[J]. 气象学报, 1996, 54 (6): 675-683 [6]马开玉, 张耀存, 陈星. 现代应用统计学 [M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2004: 15-16 [7]丁一汇, 任国玉, 石广玉, 等. 气候变化国家评估报告[I]:中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势 [J].气候变化研究进展, 2006, 2 (1): 3-8 [8]王海军, 张勃, 赵传燕, 等. 中国北方近 57 年气温时空变化特征 [J]. 地理科学进展, 2009, 28 (4): 3-650 文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 06-0423-05 全球 1970—2007 年碳排放与城市化关联机理分析 薛 冰 1 ，李春荣 1,2 ，刘 竹 1,2 ，耿 涌 1 ，郗凤明 1 （1 中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所，沈阳 110016；2 中国科学院研究生院，北京 100049） 摘 要：利用世界银行 1970—2007 年的 112 个国家（地区）的人均碳排放量和城市化率数 据，基于 SPSS 与 Eviews 软件，分析城市化水平与人均碳排放量的关联机理。结果表明，随 着城市化水平的上升，人均碳排放量逐步增加；40%的城市化率是人均碳排放变化的转折点； 在相近城市化水平下，经济发展水平较高地区和化石能源主产区的人均碳排放高于其他地 区。格兰杰因果检验表明，人均碳排放与城市化之间基本存在着格兰杰因果关系；地区之间 的格兰杰因果检验结果既有共性，也有差异。 关键词：碳排放；城市化；格兰杰因果检验中图分类号：K90 文献标识码：A 收稿日期：2011-07-06； 修回日期：2011-09-06 资助项目：国家科技支撑计划项目（2011BAJ06B01）；国家自然科学基金重点项目 （71033004）； 辽宁省博士科研基金（20101124） 第一作者：薛冰（1982—），男，助理研究员，从事人地关系、气候变化与可持续发展、循 环经济与环境技术等方面研究。E-mail: xuebing@iae.ac.cn Analysis on CO2 Emission and Urbanization at Global Level During 1970-2007 Xue Bing 1 , Li Chunrong 1, 2 , Liu Zhu 1, 2 , Geng Yong 1 , Xi Fengming 1 (1 Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China; 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China) Abstract: By using the open data during 1970-2007 published by the World Bank , this paper explored the relationship between urbanization rate and carbon emission per capita based on 112 samples . The results show that the carbon emission per capita is increasing along with the increasing urbanization rate, and 40% of the urbanization rate is a shift-point. Under the same level of urbanization, the carbon emission per capita in developed area and fossil fuel-produced area is higher than other areas. The results based on Granger Causality Test show that there is a co-relation Granger causality between urbanization rate and carbon emission per capita in most areas. There are common phenomena, but also along with some differences among different areas. Key words: carbon emission; urbanization; Granger Causality Test 参考文献 [1]郑国光. 对哥本哈根气候变化大会之后我国应对气候变化新形势和新任务的思考 [J]. 气 候变化研究进展, 2010, 6 (2): 79-82 [2]潘家华. 低碳转型的背景与途径: 从哥本哈根会议说起 [J]. 阅江学刊, 2010 (4): 85- [3]秦大河, 罗勇, 陈振林, 等. 气候变化科学的最新进展: IPCC 第四次评估综合报告解析 [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3 (6): 311-314 [4]牛桂敏. 低碳城市发展路径思考 [J]. 城市环境与城市生态, 2010, 23 (4): 9-11 [5]Grimm N B, Faeth S H, Golubiewski N E, et al. Global change and the ecology of cities [J]. Science, 2008, 319 (58): 756-760 [6]蔡博峰. 城市温室气体清单研究 [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2011, 7 (1): 23-28 [7]Dhakal S. GHG emissions from urbanization and opportunities for urban carbon mitigation [J]. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2010, 2 (4): 277-283 [8]丁仲礼, 段晓男, 葛全胜, 等. 国际温室气体减排方案评估及中国长期排放权讨论 [J]. 中 国科学: 地球科学, 2009, 39 (12): 1659-1671 [9]World Bank. Open data of World Bank [DB/OL]. [2011-06-01]. http://data.worldbank.org/ [10]张晓峒. 计量经济分析 [M]. 天津: 南开大学出版社, 2000: 280-281 [11]曹永福. 格兰杰因果性检验评述 [J]. 世界经济统计研究, 2005 (2): 16-21 [12]Dinda S, Coondoo D. Income and emission: a panel-data based cointegration analysis [J]. Ecological Economics, 2006, 57: 167-181 [13]Coondoo D, Dinda S. Causality between income and emission: a country group-specific econometric analysis [J]. Ecological Economics, 2002, 40: 351-367 [14]杨子晖. “经济增长”与“二氧化碳排放”关系的非线性研究: 基于发展中国家的非线 性 Granger 因果检验 [J]. 世界经济, 2010, 10: 139-160 文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 06-0428-07 《京都议定书》第二承诺期森林管理基准线分析 张小全 （大自然保护协会中国部，北京 100600） 摘 要：基于各附件 I 缔约方 2011 年提交的年度国家温室气体排放清单、《京都议定书》第 一承诺期森林管理活动的温室气体源/汇数据，以及森林管理活动的基准线数据，分析了森 林管理活动在第一承诺期履约中的贡献，以及按各方提交的基准线，预计森林管理活动在未 来承诺期履约中的作用。结果表明，《京都议定书》第一承诺期的最初两年（2008—2009 年），附件 I 缔约方可从合格的森林管理活动中获得年均 2.46 亿 t CO2 当量（CO2-eq）的信 用额，相当于相应缔约方基准年（1990 年）源排放的 2.3%，对减限排目标的贡献率达 53%， 不合理的规则使一些缔约方在履约中可过度地利用森林管理的汇清除。各附件 I 缔约方提交 的 2013—2020 年森林管理活动的基准线（约 2.52 亿 t CO2-eq/a 的净汇清除）远低于目前 和过去的水平，使其可从中获得的用于抵消减排目标的信用额约为第一承诺期的 4 倍，对未 来承诺期履约的贡献率将更大，一些缔约方提交的减排目标中的大部分可通过森林管理活动 的信用额来抵消。因此，本文建议在未来的谈判中，要严格控制可用的森林管理活动的信用 额，避免森林管理活动被滥用。 关键词：温室气体源/汇；《京都议定书》；第二承诺期；森林管理 中图分类号：S7/X24 文献标识码：A 收稿日期：2011-06-27； 修回日期：2011-08-19 资助项目：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项课题“我国陆地生态系统固碳潜力与速率的综合 模拟与集成分析”（XDA05050602） 第一作者：张小全（1965—），男，研究员，主要从事气候变化与林业问题研究。E-mail: zxiaoquan@tnc.org Analysis on the Reference Level of Forest Management Submitted by Annex I Parties for the Second Commitment Period of the Kyoto Protocol Zhang Xiaoquan (The Nature Conservancy China Program, Beijing 100600, China) Abstract: Reference level of forest management most recently submitted and data from updated 1990-2009 national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory including the Kyoto Protocol forest management GHG data submitted by Annex I parties in 2011 were collected and analyzed in terms of the role of forest management in the compliance of the first and proposed second commitment periods of the Kyoto Protocol. In 2008-2009, Annex I parties can claim a credit of 246 million tons of CO2 equivalent per year from eligible forest management activities under the Kyoto Protocol, accounting for 2.3% of the total GHG emissions without LULUCF in 1990 of those Annex I parties using forest management. This implies that about 53% of emission reduction committed by these parties in the first commitment period can be offset by the net GHG removals of forest management activities. Under-capped credit from forest management allows some parties able to over-use forest management credit and do much less emission reduction in emission sectors. The reference levels submitted by Annex I parties are much less than historical removals of managed forests or much higher than historical emissions. Assuming that actual emissions/removals keep at the average historical level in the future, the reference level would allow Annex I parties to use 4 times more credit from forest management in the period 2013-2020 compared with the cap in the first commitment period, by annually mean. A large part of proposed emission reduction of some parties for the second commitment period would be achieved through offsetting from forest management. Key words: GHG emissions/removals; Kyoto Protocol; second commitment period; forest management 参考文献 [1]UNFCCC. Decision 2/CMP.6. The Cancun Agreements: land use, land-use change and forestry. [M/OL]//Addendum: part two: action taken by the conference of the parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol at its first session. 2011 [2011-05-20]. FCCC/KP/CMP/2010/12/Add.1 [2]UNFCCC. Decision 16/CMP.1. Land use, land use change and forestry [M/OL]. 2005 [2011-5-20]. FCCC/KP/CMP/2005/8/Add.3 [3]UNFCCC. Compilation of economy-wide emission reduction targets to be implemented by parties included in Annex I to the Convention [M/OL]. 2011 [2011-05-20]. FCCC/SB/2011/INF.1/Rev.1 [4]张小全. LULUCF 在《京都议定书》履约中的作用[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2011, 7 (5): 369-377 文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 06-0435-06 基础四国加强气候变化科技合作的必要性和可能性 苏明山 1 ，李 昕 1 ，鲁传一 1 ，赵秀生 1 ，王文涛 2 （1 清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院，北京 100084；2 中国 21 世纪议程管理中心， 北 京 100038） 摘 要：基础四国在应对气候变化的科技合作方面，具有共同参与的广泛兴趣和优势互补的 双赢特点。四国应对气候变化科技合作，不仅能促进四国的科技研发和示范推广及成果产业 化的进程，进一步扩大四国在气候变化领域的利益交集，还将不断加深四国在气候变化谈判 中的相互理解和支持。 四国已有气候变化科技合作的基础，合作中面临的障碍也有可能克 服。四国科技合作不仅具有必要性，也有可能性。 关键词：应对气候变化；基础四国；科技合作 中图分类号：D820/P467 文献标识码：A 收稿日期：2011-04-18； 修回日期：2011-07-23 资助项目：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目（2010CB955803） 第一作者：苏明山（1962—），男，副研究员，从事气候变化研究。E-mail: sumingshan@tsinghua.org.cn Necessity and Possibility for BASIC Science and Technology Cooperation to Address Global Climate Change Su Mingshan 1 , Li Xin 1 , Lu Chuanyi 1 , Zhao Xiusheng 1 , Wang Wentao 2 (1 Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2 The Administrative Center for China’s Agenda 21, Beijing 100038, China) Abstract: This paper analyzed the willingness and basis for science and technology cooperation in BASIC countries. It is found that there are common interests in science and technology cooperation among the BASIC countries. The cooperation will not only promote science and technology innovation and development of green economy, but also enhance the understanding in the process of climate change negotiation. The existing bilateral and multilateral science and technology cooperation will be the foundation for further science and technology cooperation. In addition, the existing barriers in science and technology cooperation can be overcome. Therefore, there exist necessity and possibility for BASIC science and technology cooperation to address global climate change. Key words: addressing climate change; BASIC countries; science and technology cooperation 参考文献 [1]世界银行. 国际统计数据 2009. 2009 [2011-10-19]. http://www.stats.gov.cn/ tjsj/qtsj/gjsj/2009/t20100408_402632851.htm [2]IEA. CO2 emissions from fuel combustion [R/OL]. 2011 [2011-07-15]. http://www.iea.org/co2highlights/ co2highlights.xls [3]Brazil Government. National plan on climate change [R/OL]. 2008 [2010-02-24]. http://www.mma.gov.br/estruturas/imprensa/_arquivos/96_11122008040728.pdf [4]Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, South Africa Government. A national climate change response strategy for South Africa [R/OL]. 2004 [2010-04-17]. http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/seminar/application/pdf/sem_sup3_south_africa.pdf [5]Department of Science and Technology, South Africa Government. South Africa’s climate change technology needs assessment: synthesis report [R/OL]. 2009 [2010-04-20]. http://www.dst.gov.za/publications- policies/strategies-reports/SA%20climate%20change%20technology %20needs%20assessment.pdf [6]Ministry of Environment & Forestry, India Government. National action plan on climate change [R/OL]. 2009 [2010-02-24]. http://moef.nic.in/downloads/home/Pg01-52.pdf [7]Ministry of Science and Technology, India Government. Eleventh plan proposals: report of the working group [R/OL]. 2006 [2010-04-20]. http://www.dst.gov.in/about_us/11th-plan/rep-rd.pdf [8] 国 家 发 展 和 改 革 委 员 会 . 中 国 应 对 气 候 变 化 国 家 方 案 . 2007 [2011-10-19]. http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File1.pdf [9]科学技术部, 国家发展和改革委员会, 外交部, 等. 中国应对气候变化科技专项行动. 2007 [2011-10-19]. http://baike.baidu.com/view/2581700.htm [10]BASIC Project. Linking national and international climate policy: capacity building for challenges ahead for Brazil, China, India and South Africa [R/OL]. 2007 [2010-03-12]. http://www.basic-project.net/ 文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 06-0441-08 美国气候变化科学计划综述 王守荣 （中国气象局，北京 100081） 摘 要：简要回顾美国气候变化研究沿革，分析美国制定和实施气候变化科学计划（USCCSP） 的背景，综述 USCCSP 的研究目标、研究领域和组织管理方式。首先重点阐述 USCCSP 的关 键科学发现以及全球和美国气候变化的主要科学结论，介绍 USCCSP 综合评估产品。然后论 述美国国家科学院研究理事会（NRC）对 USCCSP 进展的评估，评述未来美国气候变化研究 的战略框架和领域。最后在归纳美国气候变化研究特色的基础上，阐述对我国制定长期战略 规划、深化基础研究、强化模式创新、推进观测系统和资料系统建设、加强科学评估和应用 服务、加快立法进程等方面的启示。 关键词：美国；气候变化；科学计划；综合评述 中图分类号：P467 文献标识码：A 收稿日期：2011-06-20； 修回日期：2011-08-19 资助项目：自然科学基金项目“不同温室气体稳定浓度水平下的中国气候变化情景研究” （40875083）；公益性行业（气象）科研专项“黄河流域短期气候、水文集成预测方法研究” （GYHY201006038） 第一作者：王守荣（1950—），男，正研级高级工程师，主要从事气候、气候变化和水文模 拟研究。E-mail: wangsr@cma.gov.cn Review of U.S. Climate Change Science Program Wang Shourong (China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China) Abstract: First, the U.S. research evolution on climate change is retrospected, the background of U.S. Climate Change Science Program (USCCSP) is analyzed, and the strategic goals, research elements and management structure of USCCSP are introduced. Then the key scientific findings, the key messages about global and U.S. climate change, and the synthesis and assessment products of USCCSP are elaborated. And then the future strategic structure of U.S. climate research is summarized in terms of the Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change by National Research Council (NRC). Finally some enlightenments and suggestions abut formulating strategic plans, promoting fundamental research, strengthening modeling innovations, advancing observation and data system development, enhancing scientific assessment and climate service, and speeding up legislation process in China are put out based on sum up of USCCSP. Key words: the United States; climate change; science program; comprehensive review 参考文献[1]IPCC. Climate change 2007: the AR4 synthesis report [R]. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, 2007 [2]US Global Change Research Program Act of 1990 [EB/OL]. [2011-04-22]. http://www.gcrio.org/gcact1990.shtml [3]US Global Change Research Program [EB/OL].1990 [2011-04-20]. http://www.globalchange.gov/ [4]US Climate Change Research Initiative [EB/OL]. 2001 [2011-04-20]. http://www.climatescience.gov/about/ccri.htm [5]US Climate Change Science Program [EB/OL]. 2002 [2011-05-21]. http://www.climatescience.gov/default.php [6]US Climate Change Technology Program [EB/OL]. 2002 [2011-05-20]. http://www.climatetechnology.gov/ [7]US Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2010. Our changing planet: a supplement to the president’s budget for fiscal year 2010 [R/OL]. [2011-05-21]. http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/ocp2010/OCP2010-cover.jpg [8]Strategic plan for the Climate Change Science Program final report [EB/OL]. 2003-07 [2011-05-27]. http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/final/default.htm [9]US Committee on Environment and Natural Resources National Science and Technology Council. Scientific assessment of the effects of global change on the United States [R/OL]. 2008-05 [2011-05-20]. http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific-assessment/ [10]US Global Change Research Program. Global climate change impacts in the United States [R/OL]. 2009-06 [2011-05-21]. http://www.globalchange.gov/ publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts [11]US Global Change Research Program. Information on synthesis and assessment products: summary information [R/OL]. 2008-10 [2011-05-20]. http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap-summary.php [12]Committee on Strategic Advice on the US Climate Change Science Program, National Research Council. Evaluating progress of the US Climate Change Science Program: methods and preliminary results [R/OL]. 2007 [2011-05-20]. http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11934 [13]Committee on Strategic Advice on the US Climate Change Science Program, National Research Council. Restructuring federal climate research to meet the challenges of climate change [R/OL]. 2009 [2011-05-20]. http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12595 [14]US Global Change Research Program, Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Our changing planet: a report of the US Global Change Research Program for fiscal year 2011. [2011-05-20]. http://downloads.globalchange. gov/ocp/ocp2011/ocp2011.pdf [15]Achieving and sustaining earth observations: a preliminary plan based on a strategic assessment by the US group on earth observations [EB/OL]. 2010 [2011-05-20]. http://www.earthzine.org 文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 06-0449-06 美国实施全球变化研究计划的协作机制及其启示申丹娜 （中国气象局发展研究中心，北京 100081） 摘 要：通过对美国全球变化研究计划的组织结构、资金获取、数据共享等协作机制的介绍， 认为一项大规模协作型研究计划的良好实施，需要依法进行立项、从国家层面组建的协 调机构、有持续稳定的经费投入、对计划进行定期评估和修正，并真正实现科学数据共享。 关键词：美国；全球变化研究计划；协作；管理 中图分类号：P467 文献标识码：A 收稿日期：2011-07-13； 修回日期：2011-09-22 资助项目：中国气象局 2010 软科学课题“全球变化研究计划对中国气象局协作管理的启示 研究”（局财专 2010-006） 第一作者：申丹娜（1979—），女，博士研究生，主要从事气象科技与战略规划的研究。 E-mail: shendna@cma.gov.cn Coordination and Management of U.S. Global Change Research Program and Its Implications Shen Danna (Research Center for Development, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China) Abstract: Based on the summary and analyses on the organization, funding resources, coordination mechanisms and data sharing of the United States Global Change Research Program, the present paper concludes general experience and regular patterns of collaborative research project management, and provides suggestions for relevant research projects in China. Key words: the United States; Global Change Research Program; coordination; management 参考文献 [1]US Global Change Research Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Our changing planet: US Global Change Research Program for fiscal year 2010 [R]. 2009: 1-4 [2]US Global change research act of 1990: public law 101-606 (11/16/90) 104 stat [M]. 1990, 11: 3096-3104 [3]Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Our changing planet: US Global Change Research Program for fiscal year 2011 [R]. Washington DC, 2011 [4]US Global Change Research Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Our changing planet: US Global Change Research Program for fiscal year 2009 [R]. Washington DC, 2009: 3 [5]Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Our changing planet: US Global Change Research Program for fiscal year 2004 and 2005 [R]. Washington DC, 2004: 139-145 [6]刘闯. 全球变化研究国家策略分析: 美国模式研究[M]. 北京: 测绘出版社, 2005: 102-130 [7]Global climate change policy book: details of US initiative announced 14 February 2002 [EB/OL] . 2008-08 [2010-05-10]. http://www.usgcrp.gov/ usgcrp/Library/gcinitiative2002/gccstorybook.htm 文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 06-0455-03 写在 IPCC 关于极端气候事件评估特别报告发表之际 Written in the IPCC Special Report Published Relating to Extreme Climate Event Assessments 赵宗慈 1,2 ，罗 勇 1,2 ，黄建斌 1 （1 清华大学地球系统科学研究中心，北京 100084；2 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室， 北京 100081） 参考文献 [1]IPCC. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation (SREX) [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011 文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 06-0458-03 D/O 循环与 H 事件 D/O Cycles and H Events 王绍武 （北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系，北京 100871） 参考文献 [1]GRIP Members. Climate instability during the last interglacial period recorded in the GRIP ice core [J]. Nature, 1993, 3: 203-207 [2]Grootes P M, Stulver M, White J W C, et al. Comparison of oxygen isotope records from the GISP2 and GRIP Greenland ice cores [J]. Nature, 1993, 366: 552-554 [3]NGRIP Members. High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last integlacial period [J]. Nature, 2004, 431: 147-151 [4]Johnsen S J, Clausen H B, Dansgaard W, et al. Irregular glacial interstadials recorded in a new Greenland ice core [J]. Nature, 1992, 359: 311-313 [5]Dansgaard W, Johnsen S J, Clausen H B, et al. Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record [J]. Nature, 1993, 3: 218-220 [6]Dansgaard W, Oeschger H. In the environmental record in glaciers and ice sheets [M]. Chichester: Wiley, 19: 287-318 [7]Burroughs W J. Climate change in prehistory [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005 [8]Bond G C, Showers W, Elliot M, et al. The North Atlantic 誷 1-2 kyr climate rhythm: relation to Heinrich events, Dansgaard Oeschger cycles and the Little Ice Age [J]. Geophysical Monograph, 1999, 112: 35-58 [9]Peterson L C, Haug G H, Hughen K A, et al. Rapid changes in the hydrologic cycle of the tropical Atlantic during the last glacial [J]. Science, 2000, 290: 1947-1951 [10]Heusser L. Direct correlation of millennial-scale changes in the western North American vegetation and climate with changes in the California current system over the past 60000 years [J]. Paleoceanography, 1998, 13: 252-262 [11]Schulz H, von Rab U, Erlenkeuser H. Correlation between Arabian Sea and Greenland climate oscillation of the past 110000 years [J]. Nature, 1998, 393: 54-57 [12]Leuschner D C, Sirocko F. The low-latitude monsoon climate during Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles and Heinrich events [J]. Quat Sci Rev, 2000, 19: 243-254 [13]An Z. The history and variability of the East Asian paleomonsoon climate [J]. Quat Sci Rev, 2000, 19: 171-187 [14]Heinrich H. Origin and consequences of cyclic ice rafting in the northeast Atlantic Ocean during the past 130,000 years [J]. Quat Res, 1988, 29: 142-152 [15]Bond G, Heinrich H, Broecker W, et al. Evidence for massive discharges of ice bergs into the North Atlantic Ocean during the last glacial period [J]. Nature, 1992, 360: 245-249 [16]Bond G, Broecker W S, Johnson S, et al. Correlations between climate records from North Atlantic sediments and Greenland ice [J]. Nature, 1993, 365: 143-147 [17]de Vernal A, Hillaire-Marcel C. Sea-ice cover, sea-surface salinity and halo-thermocline structure of the northwest North Atlantic: modern versus full glacial conditions [J]. Quat Sci Rev, 2000, 19: 65-85 [18]Imbrie J, Berger A, Boyle E A, et al. On the structure and origin of major glaciations cycles: 2. the 100000 year cycle [J]. Paleoceanography, 1993, 8: 699-735 [19]Sarnthein M, Winn K, Jung S J A, et al. Changes in east Atlantic deep water circulation over the last 30000 years: eight time slice reconstructions [J]. Paleoceanography, 1994, 9: 209-267 [20]Alley R B, Clark P U. The deglaciation of the Northern Hemisphere 誷 global perspective [J]. Ann Rev Earth Planet Sci, 1999, 27: 149-182 [21]Stocker T F. Past and future reorganizations in the climate system [J]. Quat Sci Rev, 2000, 19: 301-319 [22]Alley R B, Clark P U, Keigwin L D, et al. Making sense of millennial-scale climate change [J]. Geophysical Monograph, 1999, 112: 386-394
因篇幅问题不能全部显示，请点此查看更多更全内容
Copyright © 2019- huatuo0.cn 版权所有 湘ICP备2023017654号-2
违法及侵权请联系：TEL:199 18 7713 E-MAIL:2724546146@qq.com
本站由北京市万商天勤律师事务所王兴未律师提供法律服务